Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation

@article{SvolikMilan2008APSR, abstract = {I present a new empirical approach to the study of democratic consolidation. This approach leads to new insights into the determinants of democratic consolidation that cannot be obtained with existing techniques. I distinguish between democracies that survive because they are <em>consolidated</em> and those democracies that are <em>not consolidated</em> but survive because of some favorable circumstances. As a result, I can identify the determinants of two related yet distinct processes: the likelihood that a democracy consolidates, and the timing of authoritarian reversals in democracies that are not consolidated. I find that the level of economic development, type of democratic executive, and type of authoritarian past determine whether a democracy consolidates, but have no effect on the timing of reversals in democracies that are not consolidated. That risk is only associated with economic recessions. I also find that existing studies greatly underestimate the risk of early reversals while simultaneously overestimating the risk of late reversals, and that a large number of existing democracies are in fact consolidated.}, author = {Svolik, Milan }, citeulike-article-id = {2868149}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, keywords = {authoritarian\_transition, democratization}, number = {02}, pages = {153--168}, posted-at = {2008-07-02 07:38:17}, priority = {3}, title = {Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation}, url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online\&aid=1893596}, volume = {102}, year = {2008} }

TY - JOUR ID - SvolikMilan2008APSR L3 - citeulike-article-id:2868149 TI - Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation JF - American Political Science Review VL - 102 IS - 02 SP - 153 EP - 168 N2 - I present a new empirical approach to the study of democratic consolidation. This approach leads to new insights into the determinants of democratic consolidation that cannot be obtained with existing techniques. I distinguish between democracies that survive because they are <em>consolidated</em> and those democracies that are <em>not consolidated</em> but survive because of some favorable circumstances. As a result, I can identify the determinants of two related yet distinct processes: the likelihood that a democracy consolidates, and the timing of authoritarian reversals in democracies that are not consolidated. I find that the level of economic development, type of democratic executive, and type of authoritarian past determine whether a democracy consolidates, but have no effect on the timing of reversals in democracies that are not consolidated. That risk is only associated with economic recessions. I also find that existing studies greatly underestimate the risk of early reversals while simultaneously overestimating the risk of late reversals, and that a large number of existing democracies are in fact consolidated. KW - authoritarian_transition KW - democratization AU - Svolik, Milan PY - 2008//04/ UR - http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=1893596 ER -