Will the announced influenza pandemic really happen?

@misc{citeulike:3036566, abstract = {We propose two simple probability models to compute the probability of an influenza pandemic. Under a random walk model the probability that all pandemics between times 0 and 300 occur by time 150 is 1/2. Under a Poisson model with mean inter arrival time of 30 years the probability that no pandemic occurs during at least 60 years is 14\%. These probabilities are much higher than generally perceived. So yes the next influenza pandemic will happen but maybe much later than generally thought.}, author = {Schinazi, Rinaldo B. }, citeulike-article-id = {3036566}, eprint = {0807.3524}, keywords = {poisson, probability-course}, month = {Jul}, posted-at = {2008-07-23 11:04:17}, priority = {2}, title = {Will the announced influenza pandemic really happen?}, url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/0807.3524}, year = {2008} }

TY - ELEC ID - citeulike:3036566 L3 - citeulike-article-id:3036566 TI - Will the announced influenza pandemic really happen? N2 - We propose two simple probability models to compute the probability of an influenza pandemic. Under a random walk model the probability that all pandemics between times 0 and 300 occur by time 150 is 1/2. Under a Poisson model with mean inter arrival time of 30 years the probability that no pandemic occurs during at least 60 years is 14%. These probabilities are much higher than generally perceived. So yes the next influenza pandemic will happen but maybe much later than generally thought. KW - poisson KW - probability-course AU - Schinazi, Rinaldo PY - 2008/Jul/22/ UR - http://arxiv.org/abs/0807.3524 ER -