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Predicting habitat suitability with machine learning models: The potential area of Pinus sylvestris L. in the Iberian Peninsula

by: Marta B Garzon, Radim Blazek, Markus Neteler, Rut S Dios, Helios S Ollero, Cesare Furlanello
Ecological Modelling, Vol. 197, No. 3-4. (August 2006), pp. 383-393.


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We present a modelling framework for predicting forest areas. The framework is obtained by integrating a machine learning software suite within the GRASS Geographical Information System (GIS) and by providing additional methods for predictive habitat modelling. Three machine learning techniques (Tree-Based Classification, Neural Networks and Random Forest) are available in parallel for modelling from climatic and topographic variables. Model evaluation and parameter selection are measured by sensitivity-specificity ROC analysis, while the final presence and absence maps are obtained through maximisation of the kappa statistic. The modelling framework is applied at a resolution of 1 km with Iberian subpopulations of Pinus sylvestris L. forests. For this data set, the most accurate algorithm is Breiman's random forest, an ensemble method which provides automatic combination of tree-classifiers trained on bootstrapped subsamples and randomised variable sets. All models show a potential area of P. sylvestris for the Iberian Peninsula which is larger than the present one, a result corroborated by regional pollen analyses.


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